Comments on "Assessing future risk: quantifying the effects of sea level rise on storm surge risk for the southern shores of Long Island, New York," by Christine C. Shepard, et al (Natural Hazards, Vol. 60, No. 2, 727-745)

TL;DR

This paper critiques a previous study on sea level rise and storm surge risk for Long Island, arguing that recent data do not support increased sea level rise rates and that linear projections are sufficient for future predictions.

Contribution

It challenges prior assumptions by showing recent data do not indicate accelerating sea level rise, advocating for simple linear projections over complex models.

Findings

Sea level rise has not accelerated in the last 75 years.

Linear projections estimate 7-8 inches rise by 2080.

No evidence suggests increased future risk from sea level rise.

Abstract

Tide gauge and satellite data indicate that the rate of sea level rise has not increased significantly in response to the last 3/4 century of CO2 emissions, so there is no reason to expect that it will do so in response to the next 3/4 century of CO2 emissions. The best prediction for sea level in the future is simply a linear projection of the history of sea level at the same location in the past. For Long Island, that is about 7-8 inches by 2080.