Universality, limits and predictability of gold-medal performances at the Olympic Games

TL;DR

This paper demonstrates that Olympic athlete performances follow a universal exponential approach to a limit, allowing prediction of future achievements and record-breaking probabilities across multiple sports.

Contribution

It introduces a unified model based on normality of performance improvements to predict performance limits and record-breaking likelihoods in Olympic sports.

Findings

Performance improvements are normally distributed.

Performance evolution follows an exponential approach to a limit.

Method predicts when records are likely to be broken.

Abstract

Inspired by the Games held in ancient Greece, modern Olympics represent the world's largest pageant of athletic skill and competitive spirit. Performances of athletes at the Olympic Games mirror, since 1896, human potentialities in sports, and thus provide an optimal source of information for studying the evolution of sport achievements and predicting the limits that athletes can reach. Unfortunately, the models introduced so far for the description of athlete performances at the Olympics are either sophisticated or unrealistic, and more importantly, do not provide a unified theory for sport performances. Here, we address this issue by showing that relative performance improvements of medal winners at the Olympics are normally distributed, implying that the evolution of performance values can be described in good approximation as an exponential approach to an a priori unknown limiting performance value. This law holds for all specialties in athletics-including running, jumping, and throwing-and swimming. We present a self-consistent method, based on normality hypothesis testing, able to predict limiting performance values in all specialties. We further quantify the most likely years in which athletes will breach challenging performance walls in running, jumping, throwing, and swimming events, as well as the probability that new world records will be established at the next edition of the Olympic Games.