The women day storm

TL;DR

This paper evaluates the performance of various space weather forecast models during a geomagnetic storm caused by a solar event, highlighting common issues and presenting new forecast results.

Contribution

It provides a comparative analysis of major space weather forecast models and introduces new near-real-time forecast models for geomagnetic storms.

Findings

Identification of common problems in existing models

Performance comparison of forecast models during a geomagnetic storm

Presentation of new near-real-time forecast results

Abstract

On behalf of the International Women Day, the Sun gave a hot kiss to our mother Earth in a form of a full halo CME generated by the yesterday's double X-class flare. The resulting geomagnetic storm gives a good opportunity to compare the performance of space weather forecast models operating in near-real-time. We compare the forecasts of most major models and identify some common problems. We also present the results of our own near-real-time forecast models.