On the proficient use of GEV distribution: a case study of subtropical monsoon region in India

TL;DR

This study evaluates the use of the GEV distribution for modeling extreme rainfall in Ranchi, India, demonstrating its suitability through statistical tests and estimating long-term return levels.

Contribution

It identifies the GEV distribution as the best fit for extreme rainfall data in a subtropical monsoon region, validated by multiple goodness-of-fit tests.

Findings

GEV distribution effectively models extreme rainfall data.

Return levels increase with longer return periods.

GEV model passes Anderson-Darling and Q-Q plot tests.

Abstract

The paper deals with the probabilistic estimates of extreme maximum rainfall (Annual basis) in the Ranchi, Jharkhand (India). Extreme Value Distribution family models are tried to capture the uncertainty of data and finally Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution model is found as the best fitted distribution model. The GEV model satisfied the selection criteria [Anderson-Darling test (A-D test or Goodness of fit test) and Normality test (Q-Q plot)], which are adopted under the present study. The return levels are estimated for 5, 10, 50, 100 and 200 years which are consistently increasing for long run in future.