On the sensitivity of the simulated European Neolithic transition to climate extremes

TL;DR

This study uses a mathematical model and palaeoclimate data to assess whether extreme climate events influenced the spread of Neolithic culture across Europe, finding climate impacts are less significant than internal factors.

Contribution

It introduces an idealized climate event simulation into a sociocultural model to evaluate their effect on Neolithic transition timings.

Findings

Climate events improve lag simulation between cultural phases.

Overall model results show limited impact of climate extremes.

Endogenous factors may have played a more significant role than climate.

Abstract

Was the spread of agropastoralism from the Fertile Crescent throughout Europe influenced by extreme climate events, or was it independent of climate? We here generate idealized climate events using palaeoclimate records. In a mathematical model of regional sociocultural development, these events disturb the subsistence base of simulated forager and farmer societies. We evaluate the regional simulated transition timings and durations against a published large set of radiocarbon dates for western Eurasia; the model is able to realistically hindcast much of the inhomogeneous space-time evolution of regional Neolithic transitions. Our study shows that the consideration of climate events improves the simulation of typical lags between cultural complexes, but that the overall difference to a model without climate events is not significant. Climate events may not have been as important for early sociocultural dynamics as endogenous factors.