Using an Ellipsoid Model to Track and Predict the Evolution and Propagation of Coronal Mass Ejections

TL;DR

This paper introduces a simple ellipsoid model for tracking and predicting the evolution and propagation of coronal mass ejections using satellite imagery, achieving predictions within approximately 3 hours of actual arrival times.

Contribution

It presents a straightforward geometric model that effectively predicts CME arrival times and evolution with minimal physical assumptions, validated on three separate events.

Findings

Effective prediction of CME arrival times within 2.9 hours.

The model accurately tracks CME evolution from 0 to 0.3 AU.

Simple geometric assumptions suffice for reliable CME forecasting.

Abstract

We present a method for tracking and predicting the propagation and evolution of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) using the imagers on the STEREO and SOHO satellites. By empirically modeling the material between the inner core and leading edge of a CME as an expanding, outward propagating ellipsoid, we track its evolution in three-dimensional space. Though more complex empirical CME models have been developed, we examine the accuracy of this relatively simple geometric model, which incorporates relatively few physical assumptions, including i) a constant propagation angle and ii) an azimuthally symmetric structure. Testing our ellipsoid model developed herein on three separate CMEs, we find that it is an effective tool for predicting the arrival of density enhancements and the duration of each event near 1 AU. For each CME studied, the trends in the trajectory, as well as the radial and transverse expansion are studied from 0 to ~.3 AU to create predictions at 1 AU with an average accuracy of 2.9 hours.