Searching for Planets During Predicted Mesolensing Events: II. PLAN-IT: An Observing Program and its Application to VB 10

TL;DR

This paper discusses an observing program designed to detect planets during predicted mesolensing events, emphasizing strategies for monitoring multiple systems to discover or rule out planets, with application to the star VB 10.

Contribution

It introduces the PLAN-IT observing program framework for detecting planets in predicted lensing events, including strategies for imprecise predictions and ensemble monitoring.

Findings

Monitoring programs can detect planets within about two Einstein radii.

Ensemble monitoring ensures discovery or exclusion of planets in targeted systems.

Application to VB 10 demonstrates the program's potential despite prediction uncertainties.

Abstract

The successful prediction of lensing events is a new and exciting enterprise that provides opportunities to discover and study planetary systems. The companion paper investigates the underlying theory. This paper is devoted to outlining the components of observing programs that can discover planets orbiting stars predicted to make a close approach to a background star. If the time and distance of closest approach can be well predicted, then the system can be targeted for individual study. In most cases, however, the predictions will be imprecise, yielding only a set of probable paths of approach and event times. We must monitor an ensemble of such systems to ensure discovery, a strategy possible with observing programs similar to a number of current surveys, including PTF and Pan-STARRS; nova searches, including those conducted by amateurs; ongoing lensing programs such as MOA and OGLE; as well as MEarth, Kepler and other transit studies. If well designed, the monitoring programs will be guaranteed to either discover planets in orbits with semi-major axes smaller than about two Einstein radii, or else to rule out their presence. Planets on wider orbits may not all be discovered, but if they are common, will be found among the events generated by ensembles of potential lenses. We consider the implications for VB 10, the first star to make a predicted approach to a background star that is close enough to allow planets to be discovered. VB 10 is not an ideal case, but it is well worth studying. A more concise summary of this work, and information for observers can be found at https://www.cfa.harvard.edu/~jmatthews/vb10.html.