The long sunspot cycle 23 predicts a significant temperature decrease in cycle 24

TL;DR

This study finds that the length of solar sunspot cycle 23 can predict a significant temperature decrease in cycle 24, with solar activity contributing substantially to regional temperature variations.

Contribution

It introduces a method linking sunspot cycle length to future temperature changes, highlighting a predictive relationship for climate variability.

Findings

A significant negative correlation between cycle length and next cycle temperature.

Predicted temperature decrease of at least 1.0°C from cycle 23 to 24.

Solar contribution accounts for up to 72% of temperature variation in studied regions.

Abstract

Relations between the length of a sunspot cycle and the average temperature in the same and the next cycle are calculated for a number of meteorological stations in Norway and in the North Atlantic region. No significant trend is found between the length of a cycle and the average temperature in the same cycle, but a significant negative trend is found between the length of a cycle and the temperature in the next cycle. This provides a tool to predict an average temperature decrease of at least 1.0 "C from solar cycle 23 to 24 for the stations and areas analyzed. We find for the Norwegian local stations investigated that 25-56% of the temperature increase the last 150 years may be attributed to the Sun. For 3 North Atlantic stations we get 63-72% solar contribution. This points to the Atlantic currents as reinforcing a solar signal.