Long Time Oscillations of Wolf Number Series Autocorrelation Function and Possibility of Solar Activity Prediction

TL;DR

This paper analyzes long-term solar activity variations using Wolf number data, identifying a stable 42.5-year oscillation in autocorrelation, and discusses a statistical model for potential solar activity prediction.

Contribution

It introduces a statistical model based on nonstationarity assumptions to analyze long-term solar activity oscillations and explores its application for prediction.

Findings

Identified a stable 42.5-year oscillation in Wolf number autocorrelation.

Developed a nonstationarity-based statistical model of solar activity.

Discussed the potential of the model for predicting solar activity.

Abstract

Results of analysis of long time variations of solar activities based on monthly Wolf number series (1749-2011 years) are represented. Shown the presence of stable oscillations in autocorrelation function for the Wolf numbers series with a period near 42.5 years. The statistical model of variations of autocorrelation function based on assumption of nonstationarity process are constructed. The question of using the model to predict the solar activity is discussed.