Bayesian Implications of Current LHC Supersymmetry and Dark Matter Detection Searches for the Constrained MSSM

TL;DR

This paper assesses how recent LHC, dark matter detection, and neutrino telescope data constrain the parameter space of the Constrained MSSM, highlighting the significant impact of dwarf spheroidal galaxy observations alongside collider and direct detection limits.

Contribution

It provides a comprehensive Bayesian analysis incorporating latest experimental limits, extending parameter scans, and evaluating future neutrino data's potential to constrain supersymmetry models.

Findings

LHC limits strongly constrain the CMSSM parameters.

Dwarf spheroidal galaxy data significantly constrains the focus point region.

Future IceCube neutrino observations can further restrict the model.

Abstract

We investigate the impact of recent limits from LHC searches for supersymmetry and from direct and indirect searches for dark matter on global Bayesian inferences of the parameter space of the Constrained Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (CMSSM). In particular we apply recent exclusion limits from the CMS \alpha_T analysis of 1.1/fb of integrated luminosity, the current direct detection dark matter limit from XENON100, as well as recent experimental constraints on \gamma-ray fluxes from dwarf spheroidal satellite galaxies of the Milky Way from the FermiLAT telescope, in addition to updating values for other non-LHC experimental constraints. We extend the range of scanned parameters to include a significant fraction of the focus point/hyperbolic branch region. While we confirm earlier conclusions that at present LHC limits provide the strongest constraints on the model's parameters, we also find that when the uncertainties are not treated in an excessively conservative way, the new bounds from dwarf spheroidal have the power to significantly constrain the focus point/hyperbolic branch region. Their effect is then comparable, if not stronger, to that from XENON100. We further analyze the effects of one-year projected sensitivities on the neutrino flux from the Sun in the 86-string IceCube+DeepCore configuration at the South Pole. We show that data on neutrinos from the Sun, expected for the next few months at IceCube and DeepCore, have the potential to further constrain the same region of parameter space independently of the LHC and can yield additional investigating power for the model.