Predicting epidemic outbreak from individual features of the spreaders

TL;DR

This paper investigates how individual features of spreaders influence epidemic outbreaks across different network models and real-world data, revealing key correlations between node attributes and epidemic prevalence.

Contribution

It introduces an analytical framework linking individual spreader features to epidemic spread in various network topologies, including real-world airline networks.

Findings

High correlation between epidemic prevalence and node degree, strength, and source accessibility.

Topological effects influence correlations with betweenness centrality and k-shell index.

Analytical expression for spreading rate distribution in geometric networks.

Abstract

Knowing which individuals can be more efficient in spreading a pathogen throughout a determinate environment is a fundamental question in disease control. Indeed, over the last years the spread of epidemic diseases and its relationship with the topology of the involved system have been a recurrent topic in complex network theory, taking into account both network models and real-world data. In this paper we explore possible correlations between the heterogeneous spread of an epidemic disease governed by the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model, and several attributes of the originating vertices, considering Erd\"os-R\'enyi (ER), Barab\'asi-Albert (BA) and random geometric graphs (RGG), as well as a real case of study, the US Air Transportation Network that comprises the US 500 busiest airports along with inter-connections. Initially, the heterogeneity of the spreading is achieved considering the RGG networks, in which we analytically derive an expression for the distribution of the spreading rates among the established contacts, by assuming that such rates decay exponentially with the distance that separates the individuals. Such distribution is also considered for the ER and BA models, where we observe topological effects on the correlations. In the case of the airport network, the spreading rates are empirically defined, assumed to be directly proportional to the seat availability. Among both the theoretical and the real networks considered, we observe a high correlation between the total epidemic prevalence and the degree, as well as the strength and the accessibility of the epidemic sources. For attributes such as the betweenness centrality and the $k$-shell index, however, the correlation depends on the topology considered.