A new stochastic differential equation modelling incidence and prevalence with an application to systemic lupus erythematosus in England and Wales, 1995

TL;DR

This paper introduces a novel stochastic differential equation model to estimate the epidemiological burden of systemic lupus erythematosus in England and Wales in 1995, providing a new mathematical approach to disease modeling.

Contribution

It presents a new SDE-based reformulation of the illness-death model for epidemiology, specifically applied to systemic lupus erythematosus.

Findings

Estimated disease incidence and prevalence in 1995

Quantified epidemiological burden of SLE in England and Wales

Demonstrated effectiveness of SDEs in disease modeling

Abstract

This article reformulates a common illness-death model in terms of a new system of stochastical differential equations (SDEs). The SDEs are used to estimate epidemiological characteristics and burden of systemic lupus erythematosus in England and Wales in 1995.