Solar activity and Svalbard temperatures

TL;DR

This study models Svalbard's temperatures based on solar cycle length, finding a significant negative correlation and predicting notable temperature decreases with upcoming solar cycle changes.

Contribution

It introduces a model linking solar cycle length to Svalbard temperatures, explaining 60% of variations and enabling temperature forecasts based on solar activity.

Findings

60% of temperature variations explained by solar activity

Predicted 3.5°C annual temperature decrease from 2009-2020

Predicted 6°C decrease in winter temperatures

Abstract

The long temperature series at Svalbard (Longyearbyen) show large variations, and a positive trend since its start in 1912. During this period solar activity has increased, as indicated by shorter solar cycles. The temperature at Svalbard is negatively correlated with the length of the solar cycle. The strongest negative correlation is found with lags 10-12 years. The relations between the length of a solar cycle and the mean temperature in the following cycle, is used to model Svalbard annual mean temperature, and seasonal temperature variations. Residuals from the annual and winter models show no autocorrelations on the 5 per cent level, which indicates that no additional parameters are needed to explain the temperature variations with 95 per cent significance. These models show that 60 per cent of the annual and winter temperature variations are explained by solar activity. For the spring, summer and fall temperatures autocorrelations in the residuals exists, and additional variables may contribute to the variations. These models can be applied as forecasting models. We predict an annual mean temperature decrease for Svalbard of 3.5\pm2 oC from solar cycle 23 to solar cycle 24 (2009-20) and a decrease in the winter temperature of \approx6 oC.