Metapopulation dynamics on the brink of extinction

TL;DR

This paper develops a new analytical approach to model the stochastic dynamics of finite metapopulations, especially near extinction, by linking individual-based models with classical Levins' equation.

Contribution

It introduces a novel method that accurately describes metapopulation extinction dynamics without large population assumptions per patch, connecting stochastic models with deterministic equations.

Findings

Logarithm of extinction time relates to patch distribution and sensitivity vectors.

Large metapopulations near extinction follow Levins' deterministic dynamics.

Analytical expressions validated by stochastic simulations.

Abstract

We analyse metapopulation dynamics in terms of an individual-based, stochastic model of a finite metapopulation. We suggest a new approach, using the number of patches in the population as a large parameter. This approach does not require that the number of individuals per patch is large, neither is it necessary to assume a time-scale separation between local population dynamics and migration. Our approach makes it possible to accurately describe the dynamics of metapopulations consisting of many small patches. We focus on metapopulations on the brink of extinction. We estimate the time to extinction and describe the most likely path to extinction. We find that the logarithm of the time to extinction is proportional to the product of two vectors, a vector characterising the distribution of patch population sizes in the quasi-steady state, and a vector -- related to Fisher's reproduction vector -- that quantifies the sensitivity of the quasi-steady state distribution to demographic fluctuations. We compare our analytical results to stochastic simulations of the model, and discuss the range of validity of the analytical expressions. By identifying fast and slow degrees of freedom in the metapopulation dynamics, we show that the dynamics of large metapopulations close to extinction is approximately described by a deterministic equation originally proposed by Levins (1969). We were able to compute the rates in Levins' equation in terms of the parameters of our stochastic, individual-based model. It turns out, however, that the interpretation of the dynamical variable depends strongly on the intrinsic growth rate and carrying capacity of the patches. Only when the growth rate and the carrying capacity are large does the slow variable correspond to the number of patches, as envisaged by Levins. Last but not least, we discuss how our findings relate to other, widely used metapopulation models.