Mathematical model for hit phenomena as stochastic process of interactions of human interactions

TL;DR

This paper presents a stochastic mathematical model for hit phenomena in entertainment, using advertisement and word-of-mouth data, which accurately predicts the temporal distribution of hits in the Japanese film market.

Contribution

It introduces a novel stochastic model that links advertisement spending and social network word-of-mouth to hit phenomena, validated with real market data.

Findings

Model accurately reproduces the time distribution of hit phenomena.

Word-of-mouth distribution closely matches residue distribution in time.

Japanese film market data aligns well with the model predictions.

Abstract

Mathematical model for hit phenomena in entertainments in the society is presented as stochastic process of interactions of human dynamics. The model use only the time distribution of advertisement budget as input and the words of mouth (WOM) as posting in the social network system is used as the data to compare with the calculated results. The unit of time is daily. The WOM distribution in time is found to be very close to the residue distribution in time. The calculations for Japanese motion picture market due to the mathematical model agree very well with the actual residue distribution in time.