Revenue Prediction of Local Event using Mathematical Model of Hit Phenomena

TL;DR

This paper develops a mathematical model based on many-body theory to predict local event revenue by simulating human interactions, advertisement effects, and word-of-mouth influence, successfully explaining two real-world events.

Contribution

It introduces a novel theoretical framework incorporating multi-body human interactions and external influences to predict local event revenue.

Findings

Model accurately explained two local events in Japan

Human interactions significantly impact event revenue

Word-of-mouth effects are quantifiable in the model

Abstract

Theoretical approach to investigate human-human interaction in society performed using a many-body theory including human-human interaction. The advertisement is treated as an external force. The word of mouth (WOM) effect is included as a two-body interaction between humans. The rumor effect is included as a three-body interaction between humans. The parameters to define the strength of human interactions are assumed to be constant values. The calculated result explained well the two local events "Mizuki-Shigeru Road in Sakaiminato" and "the sculpture festival at Tottori" in Japan.