The Fermi Paradox, Self-Replicating Probes, and the Interstellar Transportation Bandwidth

TL;DR

This paper examines the Fermi Paradox by analyzing the plausibility of self-replicating probes, critiques existing models excluding them, and introduces a new interstellar transportation bandwidth theory to improve SETI strategies.

Contribution

It challenges the dismissal of self-replicating probes in galactic exploration models and proposes a novel interstellar transportation bandwidth theory affecting societal-collapse explanations.

Findings

Arguments against SRPs are weak or flawed.

Models excluding SRPs are likely unrealistic.

The new bandwidth theory questions societal-collapse models.

Abstract

It has been widely acknowledged that self-replicating space-probes (SRPs) could explore the galaxy very quickly relative to the age of the galaxy. An obvious implication is that SRPs produced by extraterrestrial civilizations should have arrived in our solar system millions of years ago, and furthermore, that new probes from an ever-arising supply of civilizations ought to be arriving on a constant basis. The lack of observations of such probes underlies a frequently cited variation of the Fermi Paradox. We believe that a predilection for ETI-optimistic theories has deterred consideration of incompatible theories. Notably, SRPs have virtually disappeared from the literature. In this paper, we consider the most common arguments against SRPs and find those arguments lacking. By extension, we find recent models of galactic exploration which explicitly exclude SRPs to be unfairly handicapped and unlikely to represent natural scenarios. We also consider several other models that seek to explain the Fermi Paradox, most notably percolation theory and two societal-collapse theories. In the former case, we find that it imposes unnatural assumptions which likely render it unrealistic. In the latter case, we present a new theory of interstellar transportation bandwidth which calls into question the validity of societal-collapse theories. Finally, we offer our thoughts on how to design future SETI programs which take the conclusions of this paper into account to maximize the chance of detection.