Estimating Total Solar Irradiance during the 21st century

TL;DR

This paper uses machine learning to estimate the Sun's energy output over the next century, predicting a solar minimum similar to historical minima and assessing its impact on climate forcing.

Contribution

It introduces a novel application of Least Square Support Vector Machine for solar irradiance prediction during the 21st century.

Findings

Next solar minimum between 2003 and 2063

Average irradiance during minimum: 1365.4 W/m2

Radiative forcing change: -0.1 W/m2

Abstract

The reconstruction and prediction of solar activity is one of the current problems in dynamo theory and global climate modeling. We estimate the Total Solar Irradiance for the next hundred years based on the Least Square Support Vector Machine. We found that the next secular solar minimum will occur between the years 2003 and 2063 with an average of 1365.4W/m2 close to the Dalton or Modern minima. We calculate the radiative forcing between the modern maximum and the 21st century minimum to be -0.1W/m2.