A model of macro-evolution as a branching process based on innovations

TL;DR

This paper presents a new model for macro-evolution as a branching process driven by rare innovations, producing tree structures that better match real phylogenetic data than previous models.

Contribution

It introduces a novel innovation-based branching model for species evolution that captures bursty speciation and realistic tree shapes.

Findings

Tree height scales as (log n)^2, unlike log n in random models.

Model's shape indices align closely with real phylogenetic trees.

Previous models like Aldous' show larger deviations from empirical data.

Abstract

We introduce a model for the evolution of species triggered by generation of novel features and exhaustive combination with other available traits. Under the assumption that innovations are rare, we obtain a bursty branching process of speciations. Analysis of the trees representing the branching history reveals structures qualitatively different from those of random processes. For a tree with n leaves, the average distance of leaves from root scales as (log n)^2 to be compared to log n for random branching. The mean values and standard deviations for the tree shape indices depth (Sackin index) and imbalance (Colless index) of the model are compatible with those of real phylogenetic trees from databases. Earlier models, such as the Aldous' branching (AB) model, show a larger deviation from data with respect to the shape indices.