An individual-based model of infection spread in an urban environment

TL;DR

This paper presents an individual-based stochastic model for infectious disease spread in urban populations, incorporating disease severity and duration, and uses Monte Carlo simulations to analyze group dynamics.

Contribution

It introduces a novel stochastic model with correlations for disease heaviness and duration, and provides a Monte Carlo simulation algorithm for urban infection spread.

Findings

Model captures disease heaviness and duration effects.

Simulation results illustrate infection dynamics in urban settings.

Provides a tool for studying intervention impacts.

Abstract

An individual-based model of the infectious disease spread among the urban population is considered. A system of stochastic equations, which describes changes in quantities of four population groups, susceptible, exposed, infected individuals and individuals in the state of remission, is built. The system of equations of the model is supplemented with correlations, which consider disease heaviness and duration for every infected individual. An algorithm and a modelling program based on Monte-Carlo methods which allows to investigate the group number dynamics is developed.