On the likelihood of non-terrestrial artifacts in the Solar System

TL;DR

This paper presents a probabilistic framework to assess the likelihood of non-terrestrial artifacts in the Solar System, emphasizing the need for targeted searches and data analysis to improve detection chances.

Contribution

It introduces a novel probabilistic approach to estimate the existence of extraterrestrial technology in the Solar System and discusses strategies to enhance detection efforts.

Findings

Probabilistic methods can quantify uncertainty about extraterrestrial artifacts.

Analyzing satellite data from the Moon and Mars can improve detection likelihood.

Continued Solar System exploration is crucial for uncovering non-terrestrial technology.

Abstract

Extraterrestrial technology may exist in the Solar System without our knowledge. This is because the vastness of space, combined with our limited searches to date, implies that any remote unpiloted exploratory probes of extraterrestrial origin would likely remain unnoticed. Here we develop a probabilistic approach to quantify our certainty (or uncertainty) of the existence of such technology in the Solar System. We discuss some possible strategies for improving this uncertainty that include analysis of moon- and Mars-orbiting satellite data as well as continued exploration of the Solar System.