The Solar Cycle: A new prediction technique based on logarithmic values

TL;DR

This paper introduces a novel logarithmic-based prediction method for solar cycle amplitudes, demonstrating a strong correlation with geomagnetic indices and highlighting the importance of measurement accuracy.

Contribution

It proposes a new logarithmic approach to predict solar cycle peaks from geomagnetic data, improving correlation and prediction accuracy over previous methods.

Findings

Logarithmic correlation between Rm and aamin is stronger than linear.

Predicted peak of cycle 24 varies significantly with measurement corrections.

Accurate aa measurements are crucial for reliable solar cycle predictions.

Abstract

A new prediction technique based on logarithmic values is proposed to predict the maximum amplitude (Rm) of a solar cycle from the preceding minimum aa geomagnetic index (aamin). The correlation between lnRm and lnaamin (r = 0.92) is slightly stronger than that between Rm and aamin (r = 0.90). From this method, cycle 24 is predicted to have a peak size of Rm (24) = 81.7(1\pm13.2%). If the suggested error in aa (3 nT) before 1957 is corrected, the correlation coefficient between Rm and aamin (r = 0.94) will be slightly higher, and the peak of cycle 24 is predicted much lower, Rm(24) = 52.5\pm13.1. Therefore, the prediction of Rm based on the relationship between Rm and aamin depends greatly on the accurate measurement of aa.