Supersymmetry in Light of 1/fb of LHC Data

TL;DR

This paper updates the analysis of supersymmetric models using recent LHC data, dark matter searches, and precision measurements, indicating heavier spectra are favored and providing new predictions for particle masses and detection thresholds.

Contribution

It incorporates the latest LHC and dark matter data into supersymmetry fits, refining parameter constraints and predictions for sparticle masses and collider thresholds.

Findings

Heavier mass spectra are favored by LHC data.

The p-value for the CMSSM fit is around 15%.

Predictions for sparticle production thresholds are provided.

Abstract

We update previous frequentist analyses of the CMSSM and NUHM1 parameter spaces to include the public results of searches for supersymmetric signals using ~1 /fb of LHC data recorded by ATLAS and CMS and ~0.3/fb of data recorded by LHCb in addition to electroweak precision and B-physics observables. We also include the constraints imposed by the cosmological dark matter density and the XENON100 search for spin-independent dark matter scattering. The LHC data set includes ATLAS and CMS searches for jets + missing ET events and for the heavier MSSM Higgs bosons, and the upper limits on B_s to mu^+ mu^- from LHCb and CMS. The absences of jets + missing ET signals in the LHC data favour heavier mass spectra than in our previous analyses of the CMSSM and NUHM1, which may be reconciled with (g-2)_mu if tan beta ~ 40, a possibility that is however under pressure from heavy Higgs searches and the upper limits on B_s to mu^+ mu^-. As a result, the p-value for the CMSSM fit is reduced to ~ 15 (38)%, and that for the NUHM1 to ~ 16 (38)%, to be compared with ~ 9 (49)% for the Standard Model limit of the CMSSM for the same set of observables (dropping (g-2)_mu), ignoring the dark matter relic density in both cases. We discuss the sensitivities of the fits to the (g-2)_mu and b to s gamma constraints, contrasting fits with and without the (g-2)_mu constraint, and combining the theoretical and experimental errors for b to s gamma linearly or in quadrature. We present predictions for m_gluino, B_s to mu^+ mu^-, M_h and M_A, and update predictions for spin-independent dark matter scattering, stressing again the importance of taking into account the uncertainty in the pi-nucleon sigma term, Sigma_{pi N}. Finally, we present predictions based on our fits for the likely thresholds for sparticle pair production in e^+e^- collisions in the CMSSM and NUHM1.