Anthropic Likelihood for the Cosmological Constant and the Primordial Density Perturbation Amplitude

TL;DR

This paper refines anthropic likelihood models for the cosmological constant and primordial density perturbation amplitude, addressing biases in previous models and incorporating mass history to improve robustness of predictions.

Contribution

It introduces a modified model for anthropic likelihoods that reduces bias and accounts for mass history, providing more reliable estimates for nd Q.

Findings

Lower anthropic likelihood of  (~5%) with the new model.

High likelihood of primordial density perturbation amplitude from the new model.

Robust likelihood estimates using mass history, less degenerate between nd Q.

Abstract

Weinberg et al. calculated the anthropic likelihood of the cosmological constant using a model assuming that the number of observers is proportional to the total mass of gravitationally collapsed objects, with mass greater than a certain threshold, at t \rightarrow \infty. We argue that Weinberg's model is biased toward small \Lambda, and to try to avoid this bias we modify his model in a way that the number of observers is proportional to the number of collapsed objects, with mass and time equal to certain preferred mass and time scales. Compared to Weinberg's model, this model gives a lower anthropic likelihood of \Lambda_0 (T_+(\Lambda_0) ~ 5%). On the other hand, the anthropic likelihood of the primordial density perturbation amplitude from this model is high, while the likelihood from Weinberg's model is low. Furthermore, observers will be affected by the history of the collapsed object, and we introduce a method to calculate the anthropic likelihoods of \Lambda and Q from the mass history using the extended Press-Schechter formalism. The anthropic likelihoods for $\Lambda$ and Q from this method are similar to those from our single mass constraint model, but, unlike models using the single mass constraint which always have degeneracies between \Lambda and Q, the results from models using the mass history are robust even if we allow both \Lambda and Q to vary. In the case of Weinberg's flat prior distribution of \Lambda (pocket based multiverse measure), our mass history model gives T_+(\Lambda_0) ~ 10%, while the scale factor cutoff measure and the causal patch measure give T_+(\Lambda_0) \geq 30%.