Distribution of the daily Sunspot Number variation for the last 14 solar cycles

TL;DR

This study analyzes daily Sunspot Number variations over 14 solar cycles, finding that their distribution follows an exponential law, especially over entire cycles, highlighting the nature of Sunspot fluctuations.

Contribution

It introduces a method to approximate Sunspot Number differences with an exponential law and verifies this with a Maximum Entropy distribution using a modified Simulated Annealing algorithm.

Findings

Distribution of daily Sunspot Number differences follows an exponential law.

Exponential approximation holds across entire solar cycles.

Fluctuations are characteristic of Sunspot activity, not average variation.

Abstract

The difference between consecutive daily Sunspot Numbers was analysed. Its distribution was approximated on a large time scale with an exponential law. In order to verify this approximation a Maximum Entropy distribution was generated by a modified version of the Simulated Annealing algorithm. The exponential approximation holds for the generated distribution too. The exponential law is characteristic for time scales covering whole cycles and it is mostly a characteristic of the Sunspot Number fluctuations and not of its average variation.