A Branching Process for Virus Survival

TL;DR

This paper introduces a new branching process model demonstrating that viral populations can survive despite high mutation rates, challenging the traditional quasispecies theory prediction of extinction beyond a critical mutation threshold.

Contribution

The paper presents a novel branching process model showing viral survival is possible even at mutation probabilities previously thought to cause extinction.

Findings

Viral populations can persist despite high mutation rates.

The new model contradicts traditional quasispecies theory predictions.

Survival depends on dynamic mutant composition.

Abstract

Quasispecies theory predicts that there is a critical mutation probability above which a viral population will go extinct. Above this threshold the virus loses the ability to replicate the best adapted genotype, leading to a population composed of low replicating mutants that is eventually doomed. We propose a new branching model that shows that this is not necessarily so. That is, a population composed of ever changing mutants may survive.