HIV/AIDS in South Africa: the beginning of the end?

TL;DR

This paper uses dynamical models to estimate the impact of ART in South Africa, showing significant reductions in HIV prevalence, new infections, and deaths due to ART provision.

Contribution

It provides the first estimates of ART's impact on HIV prevalence and mortality in South Africa using dynamical modeling.

Findings

ART has likely reduced HIV prevalence among untreated by 1.9 million

Approximately 259,000 new infections were averted

About 428,000 deaths were prevented

Abstract

In several countries in southern Africa, including South Africa, the prevalence of HIV remains stubbornly high in spite of considerable efforts to reduce transmission and to provide anti-retroviral therapy (ART). It is important to know the extent to which the high prevalence of HIV reflects the increasing number of people on ART in which case the prevalence of those not on ART may be falling. Unfortunately, direct measures of the proportion of HIV-positive people who are on ART are lacking in most countries and we need to use dynamical models to estimate the impact of ART on the prevalence of HIV. In this paper we show that the current level of ART provision in South Africa has probably reduced the prevalence of HIV among those not on ART by 1.9 million, averted 259 thousand new infections and 428 thousand deaths.