On the Testing of Seismicity Models

TL;DR

The paper evaluates a likelihood-based method for testing seismicity models, proposing improvements by focusing on integral characteristics of seismicity distributions for more efficient hazard analysis.

Contribution

It introduces a more efficient testing approach by coarsening the phase space or selecting suitable measures of closeness in seismicity model evaluation.

Findings

Model testing can be optimized through phase space coarsening.

Likelihood framework benefits from focusing on integral seismicity characteristics.

Proposed methods improve the efficiency of seismicity model validation.

Abstract

Recently a likelihood-based methodology has been developed by the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) with a view to testing and ranking seismicity models. We analyze this approach from the standpoint of possible applications to hazard analysis. We arrive at the conclusion that model testing can be made more efficient by focusing on some integral characteristics of the seismicity distribution. This is achieved either in the likelihood framework but with economical and physically reasonable coarsening of the phase space or by choosing a suitable measure of closeness between empirical and model seismicity rate in this space.