The effect of winning an Oscar Award on survival: Correcting for healthy performer survivor bias with a rank preserving structural accelerated failure time model

TL;DR

This study investigates whether winning an Oscar Award causally extends an actor's lifespan by correcting for healthy performer survivor bias using advanced statistical models, finding no strong evidence of increased survival.

Contribution

It introduces a novel application of the rank preserving structural accelerated failure time model to address bias in causal survival analysis of award winners.

Findings

Estimated survival increase of 4.2 years for Oscar winners

95% confidence interval includes zero, indicating no significant effect

Simulation studies confirm bias correction effectiveness

Abstract

We study the causal effect of winning an Oscar Award on an actor or actress's survival. Does the increase in social rank from a performer winning an Oscar increase the performer's life expectancy? Previous studies of this issue have suffered from healthy performer survivor bias, that is, candidates who are healthier will be able to act in more films and have more chance to win Oscar Awards. To correct this bias, we adapt Robins' rank preserving structural accelerated failure time model and $g$-estimation method. We show in simulation studies that this approach corrects the bias contained in previous studies. We estimate that the effect of winning an Oscar Award on survival is 4.2 years, with a 95% confidence interval of $[-0.4,8.4]$ years. There is not strong evidence that winning an Oscar increases life expectancy.