Peak Nothing: Recent Trends in Mineral Resource Production

TL;DR

This paper analyzes the production trends of seventeen raw materials, revealing a shift from logistic to exponential growth in recent decades, indicating increasing resource extraction rates.

Contribution

It provides a comprehensive analysis of recent production trends using logistic models, highlighting a significant transition in resource growth patterns.

Findings

Many resources now exhibit exponential or super-exponential growth.

The transition from logistic to exponential growth occurred mainly in the last 10-20 years.

Most resources previously followed logistic growth patterns.

Abstract

The production histories of seventeen raw materials are analyzed with the logistic model. Although many of these resources have exhibited logistic behavior in the past, they now show exponential or super-exponential growth. In most cases, the transition has occurred in the last ten to twenty years.