Determining Key Model Parameters of Rapidly Intensifying Hurricane Guillermo(1997) using the Ensemble Kalman Filter

TL;DR

This study employs the Ensemble Kalman Filter to estimate key parameters of a hurricane model during rapid intensification, using radar data to improve simulation accuracy of Hurricane Guillermo (1997).

Contribution

It introduces a novel application of the EnKF for real-time parameter estimation in hurricane modeling, integrating dual-Doppler radar data for enhanced accuracy.

Findings

Latent heat parameter estimates yielded the lowest forecast error.

Ensemble simulations captured complex nonlinear interactions.

Parameter estimation improved model fidelity during rapid intensification.

Abstract

In this work we determine key model parameters for rapidly intensifying Hurricane Guillermo (1997) using the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF). The approach is to utilize the EnKF as a tool to only estimate the parameter values of the model for a particular data set. The assimilation is performed using dual-Doppler radar observations obtained during the period of rapid intensification of Hurricane Guillermo. A unique aspect of Guillermo was that during the period of radar observations strong convective bursts, attributable to wind shear, formed primarily within the eastern semicircle of the eyewall. To reproduce this observed structure within a hurricane model, background wind shear of some magnitude must be specified; as well as turbulence and surface parameters appropriately specified so that the impact of the shear on the simulated hurricane vortex can be realized. To identify the complex nonlinear interactions induced by changes in these parameters, an ensemble of model simulations have been conducted in which individual members were formulated by sampling the parameters within a certain range via a Latin hypercube approach. The ensemble and the data, derived latent heat and horizontal winds from the dual-Doppler radar observations, are utilized in the EnKF to obtain varying estimates of the model parameters. The parameters are estimated at each time instance, and a final parameter value is obtained by computing the average over time. Individual simulations were conducted using the estimates, with the simulation using latent heat parameter estimates producing the lowest overall model forecast error.