Can large (M >= 8) EQs be triggered by tidal (M1) waves? An analysis of the global seismicity that occurred during 1901 - 2011

TL;DR

This study investigates whether tidal M1 waves can trigger large earthquakes (M >= 8) by analyzing global seismic data from 1901 to 2011, suggesting a causal link under critical stress conditions.

Contribution

It introduces a physical model explaining how tidal waves, especially M1 and K1 components, can trigger large earthquakes when seismogenic areas are critically stressed.

Findings

A causal relation between tidal M1 peaks and earthquake timing is observed.

Large earthquakes can be triggered by small tidal amplitudes under critical stress.

The model supports potential for short-term earthquake prediction.

Abstract

The analysis of two global data sets of large earthquakes (2010 - 2011, 30 samples of M \geq 7R and 1901-2011, 178 samples of M \geq 8R) reveals that there exists a cause and effect relation between the vertical tidal M1 component amplitude peak and the time of occurrence of the latter EQs. A physical model mechanism is postulated that justifies the obtained results. It is shown that the tidal waves can trigger a large EQ, despite their small amplitude, provided that the seismogenic area is under critical stress load conditions. Actually, it is shown that a large EQ can be triggered by the cooperative action of all vertical tidal components but mainly by the M1 and K1 ones. Examples are presented from the most recent global large EQs (Summatra, Mw = 9.1, 2004 and Japan, Mw = 9.0, 2011) and from Greece (Kythira, Greece, Ms = 6.9R, 2006 and Skyros, Greece, Ms = 6.1R, 2001). The postulated physical model provides the means for the implementation of the first step towards a really short-term earthquake prediction.