Low-dimensionality and predictability of solar wind and global magnetosphere during magnetic storms

TL;DR

This study investigates the low-dimensionality and predictability of solar wind and magnetosphere during magnetic storms, revealing increased determinism and persistence during storm periods, which could improve storm forecasting.

Contribution

It demonstrates that magnetic storms are characterized by increased low-dimensionality and predictability in the magnetosphere and solar wind, highlighting self-organization during storms.

Findings

SYM-H shows low-dimensional dynamics during storms

Predictability and persistence increase during storms

Solar wind parameters do not show change in determinism

Abstract

The storm index SYM-H, the solar wind velocity v, and interplanetary magnetic field Bz show no signatures of low-dimensional dynamics in quiet periods, but tests for determinism in the time series indicate that SYM-H exhibits a significant low-dimensional component during storm time, suggesting that self-organization takes place during magnetic storms. Even though our analysis yields no discernible change in determinism during magnetic storms for the solar wind parameters, there are significant enhancement of the predictability and exponents measuring persistence. Thus, magnetic storms are typically preceded by an increase in the persistence of the solar wind dynamics, and this increase is also present in the magnetospheric response to the solar wind.