A biophysical protein folding model accounts for most mutational fitness effects in viruses

TL;DR

This study uses a biophysical protein folding model combined with population genetics simulations to explain the distribution of mutational fitness effects in viruses, revealing how stability influences mutational robustness.

Contribution

It introduces a biophysical model that accounts for most mutational fitness effects in viruses, linking protein stability to evolutionary dynamics.

Findings

Most mutations affect fitness via protein stability changes.

Approximately 10-35% of mutations are lethal depending on parameters.

High mutation rates and small populations decrease protein stability and robustness.

Abstract

Fitness effects of mutations fall on a continuum ranging from lethal to deleterious to beneficial. The distribution of fitness effects (DFE) among random mutations is an essential component of every evolutionary model and a mathematical portrait of robustness. Recent experiments on five viral species all revealed a characteristic bimodal shaped DFE, featuring peaks at neutrality and lethality. However, the phenotypic causes underlying observed fitness effects are still unknown, and presumably thought to vary unpredictably from one mutation to another. By combining population genetics simulations with a simple biophysical protein folding model, we show that protein thermodynamic stability accounts for a large fraction of observed mutational effects. We assume that moderately destabilizing mutations inflict a fitness penalty proportional to the reduction in folded protein, which depends continuously on folding free energy (\Delta G). Most mutations in our model affect fitness by altering \Delta G, while, based on simple estimates, \approx10% abolish activity and are unconditionally lethal. Mutations pushing \Delta G>0 are also considered lethal. Contrary to neutral network theory, we find that, in mutation/selection/drift steady-state, high mutation rates (m) lead to less stable proteins and a more dispersed DFE, i.e. less mutational robustness. Small population size (N) also decreases stability and robustness. In our model, a continuum of non-lethal mutations reduces fitness by \approx2% on average, while \approx10-35% of mutations are lethal, depending on N and m. Compensatory mutations are common in small populations with high mutation rates. More broadly, we conclude that interplay between biophysical and population genetic forces shapes the DFE.