Would contact with extraterrestrials benefit or harm humanity? A scenario analysis

TL;DR

This paper analyzes various possible scenarios of contact with extraterrestrial intelligence to assess potential benefits or harms to humanity, aiming to prepare for future contact regardless of the specific scenario.

Contribution

It provides a broad scenario analysis framework for evaluating the potential impacts of extraterrestrial contact on humanity.

Findings

Contact could benefit or harm humanity depending on the scenario

A wide range of scenarios were considered to assess potential outcomes

Preparation strategies can be informed by scenario analysis

Abstract

While humanity has not yet observed any extraterrestrial intelligence (ETI), contact with ETI remains possible. Contact could occur through a broad range of scenarios that have varying consequences for humanity. However, many discussions of this question assume that contact will follow a particular scenario that derives from the hopes and fears of the author. In this paper, we analyze a broad range of contact scenarios in terms of whether contact with ETI would benefit or harm humanity. This type of broad analysis can help us prepare for actual contact with ETI even if the details of contact do not fully resemble any specific scenario.