Spurious predictions with random time series: The Lasso in the context of paleoclimatic reconstructions. Discussion of: A statistical analysis of multiple temperature proxies: Are reconstructions of surface temperatures over the last 1000 years reliable?

TL;DR

This paper discusses the limitations of using the Lasso method for paleoclimatic reconstructions, highlighting issues with spurious predictions when applied to random time series data.

Contribution

It provides a critical analysis of the statistical methods used in paleoclimatic reconstructions, emphasizing potential pitfalls of the Lasso in this context.

Findings

Lasso can produce spurious predictions with random time series

Current statistical methods may overstate the reliability of temperature reconstructions

Caution is needed when interpreting paleoclimatic reconstruction results

Abstract

Discussion of "A statistical analysis of multiple temperature proxies: Are reconstructions of surface temperatures over the last 1000 years reliable?" by B.B. McShane and A.J. Wyner [arXiv:1104.4002]