Clustered regression with unknown clusters

TL;DR

This paper introduces and compares multiple methods for clustered regression with unknown clusters, focusing on linear regression, and demonstrates the effectiveness of the local regression approach on real and simulated datasets.

Contribution

The paper proposes and evaluates several algorithms for CRUC, highlighting the local regression method as a practical and robust solution with theoretical insights.

Findings

LoR method achieves top prediction accuracy with reasonable computational cost.

LoR is less sensitive to parameter choices compared to other methods.

Empirical results on YLRC dataset validate the effectiveness of LoR.

Abstract

We consider a collection of prediction experiments, which are clustered in the sense that groups of experiments ex- hibit similar relationship between the predictor and response variables. The experiment clusters as well as the regres- sion relationships are unknown. The regression relation- ships define the experiment clusters, and in general, the predictor and response variables may not exhibit any clus- tering. We call this prediction problem clustered regres- sion with unknown clusters (CRUC) and in this paper we focus on linear regression. We study and compare several methods for CRUC, demonstrate their applicability to the Yahoo Learning-to-rank Challenge (YLRC) dataset, and in- vestigate an associated mathematical model. CRUC is at the crossroads of many prior works and we study several prediction algorithms with diverse origins: an adaptation of the expectation-maximization algorithm, an approach in- spired by K-means clustering, the singular value threshold- ing approach to matrix rank minimization under quadratic constraints, an adaptation of the Curds and Whey method in multiple regression, and a local regression (LoR) scheme reminiscent of neighborhood methods in collaborative filter- ing. Based on empirical evaluation on the YLRC dataset as well as simulated data, we identify the LoR method as a good practical choice: it yields best or near-best prediction performance at a reasonable computational load, and it is less sensitive to the choice of the algorithm parameter. We also provide some analysis of the LoR method for an asso- ciated mathematical model, which sheds light on optimal parameter choice and prediction performance.