Modeling the dynamical interaction between epidemics on overlay networks

TL;DR

This paper introduces a comprehensive analytical model to understand how two interacting epidemics spread simultaneously on overlay networks, accounting for network overlap and immunity effects, with applications to intervention strategies.

Contribution

The authors develop a novel analytic framework that captures the complex interaction of epidemics on overlay networks with arbitrary joint degree distributions and overlaps.

Findings

Accurately models epidemic interactions on overlay networks.

Can incorporate arbitrary network overlap and degree distributions.

Demonstrates application to delayed immunization interventions.

Abstract

Epidemics seldom occur as isolated phenomena. Typically, two or more viral agents spread within the same host population and may interact dynamically with each other. We present a general model where two viral agents interact via an immunity mechanism as they propagate simultaneously on two networks connecting the same set of nodes. Exploiting a correspondence between the propagation dynamics and a dynamical process performing progressive network generation, we develop an analytic approach that accurately captures the dynamical interaction between epidemics on overlay networks. The formalism allows for overlay networks with arbitrary joint degree distribution and overlap. To illustrate the versatility of our approach, we consider a hypothetical delayed intervention scenario in which an immunizing agent is disseminated in a host population to hinder the propagation of an undesirable agent (e.g. the spread of preventive information in the context of an emerging infectious disease).