Theoretical Framework and Empirical Modeling for Time Required to Vaccinate a Population in an Epidemic

TL;DR

This paper develops a theoretical and empirical framework to estimate the time needed to vaccinate populations during epidemics, demonstrated with H1N1 vaccination in India, aiding future epidemic planning.

Contribution

It introduces novel theorems for vaccination time functions and provides a model-based estimate for vaccination durations in different Indian subpopulations.

Findings

Vaccinating high-risk populations in villages, tehsils, and towns takes approximately 84-89 days.

Disparities in health infrastructure affect vaccination timelines across states.

The model aids in planning and resource allocation for future epidemics.

Abstract

The paper describes a method to understand time required to vaccinate against viruses in total as well as subpopulations. As a demonstration, a model based estimate for time required to vaccinate H1N1 in India, given its administrative difficulties is provided. We have proved novel theorems for the time functions defined in the paper. Such results are useful in planning for future epidemics. The number of days required to vaccinate entire high risk population in three subpopulations (villages, tehsils and towns) are noted to be 84, 89 and 88 respectively. There exists state wise disparities in the health infrastructure and capacities to deliver vaccines and hence national estimates need to be re-evaluated based on individual performances in the states.