How persistent is civilization growth?

TL;DR

This paper explores the persistent exponential growth of civilization's wealth, energy use, and CO2 emissions, based on physical and empirical arguments, projecting continued growth at around 2.3% annually without external shocks.

Contribution

It extends previous theoretical and empirical work by providing specific near-term forecasts for key economic and environmental variables.

Findings

Civilization's growth exhibits persistence and is likely to continue exponentially.

Projected growth rate of about 2.3% per year for wealth, energy, and emissions.

Without external shocks, these trends are expected to persist in the near future.

Abstract

In a recent study (Garrett, 2011), I described theoretical arguments and empirical evidence showing how civilization evolution might be considered from a purely physical basis. One implication is that civilization exhibits the property of persistence in its growth. Here, this argument is elaborated further, and specific near-term forecasts are provided for key economic variables and anthropogenic CO2 emission rates at global scales. Absent some external shock, civilization wealth, energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions will continue to grow exponentially at an average rate of about 2.3% per year.