Dynamic Red Queen explains patterns in fatal insurgent attacks

TL;DR

This paper introduces a generalized Red Queen model to explain the patterns of fatal insurgent attacks, revealing regular mathematical relations and a predictive framework for attack timing across regions.

Contribution

It develops a novel adaptive Red Queen model that captures insurgent dynamics and provides a unified explanation for attack patterns in Afghanistan and Iraq.

Findings

Predictive formula for the timing of future fatal attacks

Regular mathematical relations in attack patterns

Support for Darwinian selection in insurgent behavior

Abstract

The Red Queen's notion "It takes all the running you can do, to keep in the same place" has been applied within evolutionary biology, politics and economics. We find that a generalized version in which an adaptive Red Queen (e.g. insurgency) sporadically edges ahead of a Blue King (e.g. military), explains the progress curves for fatal insurgent attacks against the coalition military within individual provinces in Afghanistan and Iraq. Remarkably regular mathematical relations emerge which suggest a prediction formula for the timing of the n'th future fatal day, and provide a common framework for understanding how insurgents fight in different regions. Our findings are consistent with a Darwinian selection hypothesis which favors a weak species which can adapt rapidly, and establish an unexpected conceptual connection to the physics of correlated walks.