Exit polling and racial bloc voting: Combining individual-level and R$\times$C ecological data

TL;DR

This paper develops and tests a hybrid model combining individual-level exit poll data with precinct-level ecological data to improve inference on racial voting patterns, especially useful in legal contexts.

Contribution

It introduces a novel hybrid modeling approach for two-way tables that integrates ecological and individual data, enhancing inference accuracy in voting pattern analysis.

Findings

Hybrid estimator outperforms pure ecological models.

Hybrid approach enables detailed racial voting inferences.

Simulation confirms hybrid model's practical advantages.

Abstract

Despite its shortcomings, cross-level or ecological inference remains a necessary part of some areas of quantitative inference, including in United States voting rights litigation. Ecological inference suffers from a lack of identification that, most agree, is best addressed by incorporating individual-level data into the model. In this paper we test the limits of such an incorporation by attempting it in the context of drawing inferences about racial voting patterns using a combination of an exit poll and precinct-level ecological data; accurate information about racial voting patterns is needed to assess triggers in voting rights laws that can determine the composition of United States legislative bodies. Specifically, we extend and study a hybrid model that addresses two-way tables of arbitrary dimension. We apply the hybrid model to an exit poll we administered in the City of Boston in 2008. Using the resulting data as well as simulation, we compare the performance of a pure ecological estimator, pure survey estimators using various sampling schemes and our hybrid. We conclude that the hybrid estimator offers substantial benefits by enabling substantive inferences about voting patterns not practicably available without its use.