The background seismicity rate of the Greek territory, considered as a unified seismogenic area, for the period 1964 - 2010. Is Greece in course for a large seismic event?

TL;DR

This study analyzes Greek seismicity from 1964 to 2010, indicating accelerating deformation and suggesting Greece may be approaching a significant seismic event based on energy release patterns.

Contribution

It provides a detailed assessment of seismic energy release and deformation trends in Greece, highlighting potential precursors to a large earthquake.

Findings

Increasing seismic activity since 1964

Accelerating deformation over the last 10 years

Potential for a major seismic event in Greece

Abstract

The analysis of the earthquakes catalog of Greece for the period 1964 to 2010 indicates a continuously increasing no. of seismic events. A detailed determination of the cumulative seismic energy release, for specific earthquake magnitudes, revealed that for magnitudes up to Ms = 5.0R the Greek territory, considered as a unified seismogenic area, is at a state of accelerating deformation for almost the last 10 years. The background seismicity rate, considering constant cumulative seismic energy release for the entire study period, corresponds to a magnitude of Ms = 5.5R, while for earthquakes of larger magnitudes the Greek seismogenic area behaves irregularly. The results are compared to the different phases (Mjachkin et al, 1975) a seismogenic area undergoes before a large seismic event. From this comparison it is concluded that the Greek territory is probably in the course for a large seismic event in the years to come.