Epistemic and systematic uncertainties in Monte Carlo simulation: an investigation in proton Bragg peak simulation

TL;DR

This paper investigates how epistemic uncertainties influence Monte Carlo simulations of proton Bragg peaks, analyzing various physics models and highlighting the need for experimental data to reduce these uncertainties.

Contribution

It provides a detailed analysis of epistemic uncertainties in proton Monte Carlo simulations and identifies key experimental measurements to improve model accuracy.

Findings

Electromagnetic and hadronic models significantly affect simulation outcomes.

Systematic effects can be identified and quantified.

Recommendations for experimental measurements to reduce uncertainties.

Abstract

The issue of how epistemic uncertainties affect the outcome of Monte Carlo simulation is discussed by means of a concrete use case: the simulation of the longitudinal energy deposition profile of low energy protons. A variety of electromagnetic and hadronic physics models is investigated, and their effects are analyzed. Possible systematic effects are highlighted. The results identify requirements for experimental measurements capable of reducing epistemic uncertainties in the physics models.