From Social Simulation to Integrative System Design

TL;DR

This paper advocates for establishing a network of integrative systems design centers to simulate and analyze complex socio-economic-environmental interactions, aiming to improve decision-making and prevent negative policy side effects.

Contribution

It proposes a comprehensive framework for creating interconnected centers that run scenario analyses, identify causality, and explore feedback effects within socio-economic-environmental systems.

Findings

Conceptual framework for integrative systems design centers

Potential to improve policy decision-making

Enhanced understanding of complex system interdependencies

Abstract

As the recent financial crisis showed, today there is a strong need to gain "ecological perspective" of all relevant interactions in socio-economic-techno-environmental systems. For this, we suggested to set-up a network of Centers for integrative systems design, which shall be able to run all potentially relevant scenarios, identify causality chains, explore feedback and cascading effects for a number of model variants, and determine the reliability of their implications (given the validity of the underlying models). They will be able to detect possible negative side effect of policy decisions, before they occur. The Centers belonging to this network of Integrative Systems Design Centers would be focused on a particular field, but they would be part of an attempt to eventually cover all relevant areas of society and economy and integrate them within a "Living Earth Simulator". The results of all research activities of such Centers would be turned into informative input for political Decision Arenas. For example, Crisis Observatories (for financial instabilities, shortages of resources, environmental change, conflict, spreading of diseases, etc.) would be connected with such Decision Arenas for the purpose of visualization, in order to make complex interdependencies understandable to scientists, decision-makers, and the general public.