Have Baryonic Acoustic Oscillations in the galaxy distribution really been measured?

TL;DR

This study uses large mock galaxy catalogs to evaluate the statistical significance of BAO detection in galaxy surveys, concluding current data is insufficient for definitive detection but still useful for standard ruler measurements under certain models.

Contribution

It provides a comprehensive analysis of BAO detection significance using realistic mocks, clarifying the distinction between model selection and parameter fitting.

Findings

Only 20% of mocks show significant BAO detection.

BAO position can be estimated within 5-20% in mocks.

Current galaxy samples are not large enough for conclusive BAO detection.

Abstract

Recent publications claim that there is no convincing evidence for measurements of the baryonic acoustic (BAO) feature in galaxy samples using either monopole or radial information. Different claims seem contradictory: data is either not consistent with the BAO model or data is consistent with both the BAO model and featureless models without BAO. We investigate this point with a set of 216 realistic mock galaxy catalogs extracted from MICE7680, one of the largest volume dark matter simulation run to date, with a volume of 1300 cubical gigaparsecs. Our mocks cover similar volume, densities and bias as the real galaxies and provide 216 realizations of the Lambda or w=-1 Cold Dark Matter (wCDM) BAO model. We find that only 20% of the mocks show a statistically significant (3 sigma) preference for the true (input) wCDM BAO model as compared to a featureless (non-physical) model without BAO. Thus the volume of current galaxy samples is not yet large enough to claim that the BAO feature has been detected. Does this mean that we can not locate the BAO position? Using a simple (non optimal) algorithm we show that in 50% (100%) of the mocks we can find the BAO position within 5% (20%) of the true value. These two findings are not in contradiction: the former is about model selection, the later is about parameter fitting within a model. We conclude that current monopole and radial BAO measurements can be used as standard rulers if we assume wCDM type of models.