Confidence Level Estimator for cosmological model (Research Note)

TL;DR

This paper introduces a confidence level estimator for cosmological models, addressing the gap in quantifying the certainty of model predictions beyond mere observational precision.

Contribution

It proposes a novel estimator that accounts for priors and provides a quantitative confidence measure for cosmological models and their observable predictions.

Findings

Estimator effectively quantifies confidence levels.

Addresses limitations of current precision cosmology.

Enhances interpretation of cosmological model reliability.

Abstract

Models of the Universe like the Concordance Model today used to interpret cosmological observations give expectation values for many cosmological observable so accurate that frequently peoples speak of Precision Cosmology. The quoted accuracies however do not include the effects of priors used in optimizing the Model nor allow to evaluate the confidence one can attach to the Model. We suggest an estimator of the Confidence Level for Models and the accuracies of the expectation values of the Model observables