Towards a unified characterization of phenological phases: fluctuations and correlations with temperature

TL;DR

This paper introduces a unified phenological index that captures the influence of climate on multiple botanical species by analyzing fluctuations and correlations with temperature, offering a comprehensive view of phenological responses to climate change.

Contribution

It proposes a novel ensemble-based phenological index that characterizes climate influence across various species, moving beyond individual trend analysis.

Findings

Phenological fluctuations depend on seasons.

The new index effectively captures climate influence on plant development.

Ensemble analysis provides a comprehensive phenological characterization.

Abstract

Phenological timing -- i.e. the course of annually recurring development stages in nature -- is of particular interest since it can be understood as a proxy for the climate at a specific region; moreover changes in the so called phenological phases can be a direct consequence of climate change. We analyze records of botanical phenology and study their fluctuations which we find to depend on the seasons. In contrast to previous studies, where typically trends in the phenology of individual species are estimated, we consider the ensemble of all available phases and propose a phenological index that characterizes the influence of climate on the multitude of botanical species.