A Scientometric Prediction of the Discovery of the First Potentially Habitable Planet with a Mass Similar to Earth

TL;DR

This paper introduces a scientometric approach to predict the discovery date of the first Earth-like habitable exoplanet, estimating it to occur around May 2011 based on analysis of known exoplanets.

Contribution

It develops a novel habitability metric and applies bootstrap analysis to predict the timing of discovering the first Earth-like habitable planet.

Findings

Prediction of the first Earth-like habitable planet in early May 2011

The habitability metric correlates well with external estimates

Demonstrates the effectiveness of scientometric techniques in scientific forecasting

Abstract

The search for a habitable extrasolar planet has long interested scientists, but only recently have the tools become available to search for such planets. In the past decades, the number of known extrasolar planets has ballooned into the hundreds, and with it the expectation that the discovery of the first Earth-like extrasolar planet is not far off. Here we develop a novel metric of habitability for discovered planets, and use this to arrive at a prediction for when the first habitable planet will be discovered. Using a bootstrap analysis of currently discovered exoplanets, we predict the discovery of the first Earth-like planet to be announced in the first half of 2011, with the likeliest date being early May 2011. Our predictions, using only the properties of previously discovered exoplanets, accord well with external estimates for the discovery of the first potentially habitable extrasolar planet, and highlights the the usefulness of predictive scientometric techniques to understand the pace of scientific discovery in many fields.