Crowd dynamics - being stuck

TL;DR

This paper models crowd evacuation dynamics to estimate the probability of individuals escaping on their own and assesses the impact of helpers needed to improve this probability.

Contribution

It applies the generalized force model to quantify individual escape probabilities and helper requirements in crowd evacuation scenarios.

Findings

In a crowd of 150, individual escape probability is under 10%.

Helpers significantly increase the chance of individual escape.

Model parameters are based on established crowd dynamics literature.

Abstract

We consider a crowd of N persons trying to exit some area trough a small exit. The probability is calculated that an individual is able to withdraw from the crowd under one's own steam. The problem is simulated within the generalized force model (D. Helbing et al., Nature 407 (2000) 487), and all model parameters are taken from this paper. The results indicate, that in a crowd of 150 persons, this probability is not greater than ten percent. We also evaluate the number of helpers necessary to get the above probability of fifty percent.